Mild and wet long weekend forecast

Rain is expected to spread across the region from Sunday through to Tuesday. File photo/SunLive.


The Bay of Plenty is at risk of heavy rain this long weekend. says the eastern side of Northland looks to have the highest rainfall totals.

“For the most part, around 40 to 60mm will fall, but some isolated pockets may get 100mm+.

“The rain is more likely going into Sunday/Monday and Tuesday,” warns the weather organisation.

“Risks then shift further down towards Coromandel Peninusla and Bay of Plenty.”

The reason for this forecast rain is that a dominant high pressure system covering New Zealand at the moment will give way to windier northerlies and pockets of rain - with isolated heavy falls this long weekend.

“Rain will expand across New Zealand from Saturday night into early next week as a low pressure system approaches from the Tasman Sea but is held up by the very slowly departing high to NZ's east,” says

“Between this area of low pressure and the departing powerful high will be an atmospheric river developing in northern NZ - a current of moisture-rich air which can produce slow moving heavy rain.

“Peak rainfall on the West Coast will be Saturday night to Sunday morning with 24-hour rainfall of 80-100mm for portions of the West Coast - and overall totals from Friday to Sunday may reach 200 mm around the glaciers (with snow in the mountains).

“Heavy rain moves into the Nelson Ranges too, with over 100mm possible which may lead to some valleys having flood risks.

“Then Northland is the next exposed area for heavy rain. While general totals are 40 to 60mm there will be some pockets that exceed 100mm and this may again lead to localised flooding. (The flooding we saw in Canterbury this week was far more widespread and not what we'd usually call "localised").

“The northerly quarter airflow means many regions will be mild for this time of year across the long weekend.”


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